| Surrounded by dark-panelled
walls in the Treasury’s main conference room in
May 1997, Gordon Brown introduced the British public
to a new long-term monetary policy framework, heralding
the arrival of “prudence” and “economic
stability” as phrases soon to become inextricably
linked with Labour’s stewardship of the economy.
Announcing the independence of the Bank of England,
the new Chancellor said he was leaving behind “the
economic instability that has characterised the British
economy, not just in recent years but for most of the
century”.
Along with a raft of other structural reforms, such
as the Government’s fiscal rules and incentives
to encourage capital markets, future historians will
probably agree that making the Bank of England independent
did create the sort of stability that Gordon Brown spoke
of in 1997. History will certainly show that turn-of-the-century
Britons lived in a time when inflation, long-term interest
rates and unemployment were at their lowest levels in
30 years.
The true test, however, of Labour’s commitment
to longtermism, and the changes to Britain’s economic
structure that have resulted, will be in how it fares
in the global economy, in an ever-more interdependent
world. Equally, the true test of how Europe’s
economic future unfolds will depend largely on whether
the EU – as an institution and as individual nations
– pursues the economic reforms that will create
the conditions for stability and allow it to withstand
the global shocks of an interdependent world.
As the world economy experienced the first simultaneous
downturn for 30 years, the UK economy has, so far, held
its own. In 2001, the UK economy grew by 2% –
the fastest of any G7 country and higher than the EU
average – and the UK ranked second in the world
at attracting inward investment. Even in UK manufacturing,
where output declined by 2.4% in 2001, after growth
of 2% in 2000, there is a positive comparison to be
drawn with Japan’s manufacturing output contraction
of 7.5%, and an output fall of 4.4% in the US over the
same period.
But the experience of European businesses and economies
in the first years of the 21st century demonstrates
that in a new era of globalisation, global economic
insecurities and opportunities arise together. Such
co-ordinated action demands that Europe develops a collective
response to achieve shared economic objectives of high
and stable levels of growth.
The response to the economic challenges that arose from
an international downturn, and the terrorist threat
that countries on every continent now face, has been
truly global. Japan introduced extensive financial sector
reforms while the United States – where a number
of corporate scandals were also shaking investor confidence
– took steps to tighten accounting and auditing
standards.
Now, at a time when we can fully understand the insecurities
and opportunities of the interdependence that bind nations
together, it is clear that the EU must adopt far-reaching
economic reforms across Europe to entrench the conditions
for stability and growth that businesses need to succeed.
As in business, if Europe makes the right long-term
decisions to create the best conditions for high-quality
investment – through initiatives to encourage
innovation, R&D, and infrastructure – then
the continent will be better placed to secure our objectives.
At the Lisbon Council in 2000, heads of state vowed
to make the continent “the most competitive and
knowledgebased economy in the world”. Some progress
has been made, including the opening of energy markets
to encourage greater competition and reforms to anti-trust
rules that allow competition to flourish. But a great
deal remains to be done if we are to complete the single
market and create the conditions for stability that
can withstand the shocks of the global economy.
The Centre for European Reform recently identified Denmark,
Finland and Sweden as having met most of the Lisbon
criteria, with Britain, the Netherlands and Ireland
all making good progress toward them. But “the
eurozone’s three largest economies have so far
made little attempt to fulfil their Lisbon promises,
particularly over labour market and pension reforms,”
says Alasdair Murray, director of the CER’s business
and social policy unit.
Europe needs, as Murray says, a clear ‘road map’
for reform.
First, EU countries need to innovate with policies to
improve skills, employment and labour market flexibility.
European businesses no longer compete in a low-investment
and low-skill economy, but in markets where there are
high levels of skills and technology that demand greater
investment. Dynamic economies that succeed in this global
market will need adaptable and flexible labour markets
where there is an understanding and willingness among
workers to be more mobile, where they are equipped to
compete in high-skill positions and there is flexibility
within all parts of business to adapt to new working
patterns in response to a rapidly-changing marketplace.
In each of these areas, the EU must raise its game.
In the United States – a single currency area
that has demonstrated the importance of labour market
flexibility to economic success – not only is
there far greater geographic mobility in response to
change than in the EU, but the rate of job turnover
in the US is four years, far outstripping the seven
years per job in the euro area.
As we need greater labour market flexibility, so too
must the European Union nations work toward better regulated
and more flexible product and capital markets that are
transparent and well-informed to ensure the most productive
use of capital flows. Flexibility in product and capital
markets demands that business and EU economies embrace
competition to extend choices and benefits to consumers
as well as rewarding innovation, entrepreneurship and
higher productivity levels.
By advocating single market liberalisation at a European
level, businesses are hoping to reap the benefits forecast
in the 1988 report by European Commission special adviser
Paolo Cecchini. The Cecchini report projected that such
liberalisation would add 4.5% to Europe’s GDP,
cut prices by 6% and increase employment by 1.75 million.
Yet the gains have yet to be realised. To achieve them
we need a more aggressive EU competition regime that
scrutinises markets and sectors to stimulate competition
and prevent firms being excluded from European markets,
as well as faster progress on proposed reforms of airport
slot allocation and postal service liberalisation.
Another critical aspect of improving the economic conditions
for stability and growth in the EU is enhancing the
climate for R&D by removing the obstacles to business
innovation. At a time of economic challenges it is,
perhaps, easy to see research as an area for governments
to cut spending. But businesses know that investment
in the ideas and innovation of tomorrow is a sensible
investment in the long-term dynamism of an economy.
Securing an innovation and research-led economic future
for the EU will depend, therefore, on the decisions
made by national governments on research and the regulations
at an EU level on the commercial use of that research.
Unnecessary regulation can also hamper the chances for
high and stable levels of growth. With 40% of new regulations
coming directly from the EU, we need finance ministers
across the continent to put in place the mechanisms
that will assess all new directives for their regulatory
impact as well as taking stock of rules already on the
books. Economies and businesses cannot prosper and succeed
without some guidelines and, indeed, effective and well-informed
regulation can be a spur to economic growth and innovation,
but there must be serious attempts to identify regulation
that does not serve Europe’s public or economic
interests and can be reduced.
The final piece of a reform agenda was proposed by the
British Government in March this year: a modern state
aid regime that gives wealthier nations with domestic
regional inequalities greater freedom to tackle capital,
labour and product market failures closer to the areas
where those decisions will have greatest impact.
While it makes sense for Europe to address inequities
in the state aid regime that distort the single market,
it is also appropriate that the EU addresses a system
that exacerbates failures in local and regional markets.
In the UK, for example, it took more than a year to
secure EU approval for the creation of regional venture
capital funds, critical to areas sorely in need of stronger
capital markets. Such a system is a hindrance to the
development of the EU economy as a whole and the proposals
put forward by the UK help move this process forward.
These are the components of a European economic reform
agenda that can drive economic and business growth not
just in the UK, but across the European Union. At a
time of global uncertainty, and as enlargement threatens
to make the EU decision-making process even more cumbersome,
such a collective approach to economic reform is not
simply an objective to aim for, but a necessity for
the future success of European businesses and economies,
and all nations must play their part.
If such a plan can be developed – the “road
map” that Alasdair Murray speaks of – and
is quickly and effectively implemented, the economic
future for the continent can be one of high and stable
levels of growth with dynamic businesses rewarded for
innovation and equipped to succeed in the new and rapidly
changing global economy.
Wilf Stevenson is Director of
The Smith Institute, which is an independent Think Tank
that has been set up to undertake research and education
in issues that flow from the changing relationship between
social values and economic imperatives. In recent years
the Institute has centred its work on the policy implications
arising from the interactions of equality, enterprise
and equity.
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